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Post by coachweav88 on Jan 30, 2015 15:41:38 GMT -6
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Post by silkyice on Jan 30, 2015 16:21:32 GMT -6
There is a material difference between pro sports (for which Moneyball was written) and HS sports; that being homogenized talent. In the NFL the difference between the best player on the field and the 22nd best player on the field (in whichever way you choose to measure it) isn't that great. With talent being so relatively close turnovers tend to be a stat more closely related to success. In High School football the relative talent disparity is far greater, so in many cases turnovers or penalties can often times be overcome. I can afford a few fumbles here and their because I'm just gonna give it to my soon to be D-1 back and have him run at your soon to be office manager linebacker- I win. My main point here is that we should be wary trying to utilize statistics from the NFL or NCAA and give them credence in the HS game. Additionally, the overall talent level of opponent fluctuates so greatly that it becomes a variable that skews most studies. Case in point, my HC wants us to breakdown last year's defensive play calls and look how many yards we gave up so we can see what worked best. I tried to point out to him that the logic is flawed- "whatever calls we made against the worst teams will appear to be what we did best". He could have called all the right plays against the undefeated team we lost to in the playoffs, but they were a good team so it may not have worked. Conversely, he may have been awful in our win against a 2-8 opponent, but our talent shined through. The higher up you go, the less relative talent disparity there is. Great Post!!
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Post by coachd5085 on Jan 30, 2015 17:43:03 GMT -6
Well, counting their victories last year won't take long. Haha, that's why I purposely referenced the TT teams. But even if you took a decent high school Air Raid team....would the rushing yards stat have a strong correlation to victories? I don't know the answer, just curious. I believe one needs to be careful when looking at the correlation between rushing stats and victories, especially in high school. I would say the underlying factor in that correlation is simply physical dominance, and the true most important "stats" are squat numbers, clean/deadlift numbers, shuttle runs and 40 times. If you are a guy who loves spending time crunching numbers...then by all means do that. But I think much of the "analysis" discussed on page one of this thread won't prove fruitful because of the things mentioned by carookie
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Post by fantom on Jan 30, 2015 17:46:13 GMT -6
I have an opinion about what stats are most meaningful (Takewways and 3rd down stops) but don't really know how that info helps me. Years ago we used to keep a chart of statistical goals for each game. We'd mark off the goals we accompliished and post the chart for the kids to see. One daay it hit me: "Well no s$it Sherlock", We accomplished 10 out of 13 goals, played well, and won. Last week we only accomplished 3 and lost.
Did that knowledge change anything that we did? If we failed to accomplish our goal of 100 rushing yards was it because last week we made a decision not to stop the run? Did we simply say, "Well guys, this week we should try to play good run defense"? Our kids didn't give up rushing yards because they didn't think it was important.
If somebody can explain to me why worrying about stats will help us win, I'm in. Right now I just think that all that ststs do is explain why we lost but doesn't help us win next week.
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Post by coachklee on Jan 30, 2015 18:06:27 GMT -6
While I agree that running the football helps you win, box scores can be misleading, as well as saying that you have won x percentage of your games when you run for x amount of yards. Remember that the winning team runs the ball late in the game because they have the lead and want to grind out the clock. This skews the numbers a little bit in favor of rushing, particularly in a blowout win. Say team "A" opens up a 28 point lead in the first half chucking it deep, then they spend the entire second half running the ball to kill the clock and end up with 35 carries for 300 yards. ...but they still do it...often that 2nd string doing it at the end is still doing it despite the fact they are going against 1st stringers. I've found that great effort in the weight room & at practice is the #1 stat that indicates winning...
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Post by coachd5085 on Jan 30, 2015 18:14:15 GMT -6
I have an opinion about what stats are most meaningful (Takewways and 3rd down stops) but don't really know how that info helps me. Years ago we used to keep a chart of statistical goals for each game. We'd mark off the goals we accompliished and post the chart for the kids to see. One daay it hit me: "Well no s$it Sherlock", We accomplished 10 out of 13 goals, played well, and won. Last week we only accomplished 3 and lost. Did that knowledge change anything that we did? If we failed to accomplish our goal of 100 rushing yards was it because last week we made a decision not to stop the run? Did we simply say, "Well guys, this week we should try to play good run defense"? Our kids didn't give up rushing yards because they didn't think it was important. If somebody can explain to me why worrying about stats will help us win, I'm in. Right now I just think that all that ststs do is explain why we lost but doesn't help us win next week. I bolded and underlined the parts that I constantly stress when I see posts about helmet sickers/goal boards/stats etc. HOW DOES IT CHANGE WHAT YOU DO? Everyone loves to state that Turnovers are so important, but really, how does that change what you do. Doesn't EVERYONE do a turnover circuit? Doesn't EVERYONE preach and practice ball security? Maybe not all HS teams, but I assure you that the bottom 20% in turnover margin in NCAA ball doesn't do anything significantly different than the what the top 10% does. Same with rushing yards. Wanting to rush for _____ yards is great, but how does that actually HELP you. What does it change at practice? You will probably meet that goal against teams you are physically superior to, and fail to meet it against teams that you are physically inferior to.
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Post by natenator on Jan 30, 2015 18:30:35 GMT -6
I have an opinion about what stats are most meaningful (Takewways and 3rd down stops) but don't really know how that info helps me. Years ago we used to keep a chart of statistical goals for each game. We'd mark off the goals we accompliished and post the chart for the kids to see. One daay it hit me: "Well no s$it Sherlock", We accomplished 10 out of 13 goals, played well, and won. Last week we only accomplished 3 and lost. Did that knowledge change anything that we did? If we failed to accomplish our goal of 100 rushing yards was it because last week we made a decision not to stop the run? Did we simply say, "Well guys, this week we should try to play good run defense"? Our kids didn't give up rushing yards because they didn't think it was important. If somebody can explain to me why worrying about stats will help us win, I'm in. Right now I just think that all that ststs do is explain why we lost but doesn't help us win next week. I bolded and underlined the parts that I constantly stress when I see posts about helmet sickers/goal boards/stats etc. HOW DOES IT CHANGE WHAT YOU DO? Everyone loves to state that Turnovers are so important, but really, how does that change what you do. Doesn't EVERYONE do a turnover circuit? Doesn't EVERYONE preach and practice ball security? Maybe not all HS teams, but I assure you that the bottom 20% in turnover margin in NCAA ball doesn't do anything significantly different than the what the top 10% does. Same with rushing yards. Wanting to rush for _____ yards is great, but how does that actually HELP you. What does it change at practice? You will probably meet that goal against teams you are physically superior to, and fail to meet it against teams that you are physically inferior to. It's this type of stuff as to why I refuse to grade game video or track missed tackles, tackles for losses, etc. They would simply be for my own knowledge but they certainly aren't helping my players improve or giving me any magical insight into performance analysis. Video always puts game stats into context. CONTEXT is what matters.
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Post by bigm0073 on Jan 30, 2015 20:54:05 GMT -6
You can say what you want about this but just open up your saturday paper every morning in the fall and read the box scores.. I have done it so many times I can not even count it.... In high school football that stat means a lot.. Turnovers more IMO but that one is the next big one. How much did we run for and did we stop them.. If we can not stop the run and if we can not run the ball.. we are doomed..
I TOTALLY disagree with the post about teams running the ball because of their teams squatting, dead lifting.. basically superior strength... That is hog wash and garbage. It is called a commitment on both sides of the ball,,, Technique, proper coaching and play calling. I am a former lineman... I coached oline at the college level.. Oline play is and WILL ALWAYS be a priority in my program. So is running the ball. My DC was a DLine college for almost 10 years at the college level.. He teaches, great technique and is totally committed to stopping the run. That is our focus.. He is totally committed to taking away your run plays and stopping them.. We spend endless hours each week on defense prepping triangle drill, inside run/9 on 9 and drilling to stop their run. It is our #1 priority each and every week on defense.
We have had midgets, small kids, scrappy kids and were able to do this.. It is a commitment, system... Again I preach this stat... Just open up your box scores and read them. Unless their is a huge turnover margin disparity the team that runs the ball better usually wins over 80% of the time.
I also agree with red zone/green zone offense.. Scoring TDs and stoping in the red zone is very critical too...
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Post by coachd5085 on Jan 30, 2015 21:35:06 GMT -6
I TOTALLY disagree with the post about teams running the ball because of their teams squatting, dead lifting.. basically superior strength... That is hog wash and garbage. It is called a commitment on both sides of the ball,,, Technique, proper coaching and play calling. I am a former lineman... I coached oline at the college level.. Oline play is and WILL ALWAYS be a priority in my program. So is running the ball. My DC was a DLine college for almost 10 years at the college level.. He teaches, great technique and is totally committed to stopping the run. That is our focus.. He is totally committed to taking away your run plays and stopping them.. We spend endless hours each week on defense prepping triangle drill, inside run/9 on 9 and drilling to stop their run. It is our #1 priority each and every week on defense. And when your opponent does the same thing--and outsquats, out cleans, out deads your team by a decent margin...... I am betting they will be the team winning over 80% of the time. And if YOU are the guys who are outcleaning, outsquatting and out deading an opponent who also spends countless ours drilling technique ....YOU will be the team winning over 80% of the time.
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Post by coachd5085 on Jan 30, 2015 21:54:29 GMT -6
bigm0073 Don't get me wrong. I think there is enough evidence from my posts to show I don't believe in the "oh, I don't have athletes..boo hoo" or "Yay, I have athletes I will win" philosophy. My point is that when you open up the Sat morning box scores, I don't think the majority of lopsided run stats are from games where teams with solid S&C programs and strong/fast players are getting manhandled by slow, weak, unconditioned teams that are really good blockers. Rather they are from games where the dominant team was well coached (the things you described) and had a better commitment/buy in to their S&C program, or they hit the genetic lotto.
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Post by carookie on Jan 30, 2015 22:02:32 GMT -6
I have an opinion about what stats are most meaningful (Takewways and 3rd down stops) but don't really know how that info helps me. Years ago we used to keep a chart of statistical goals for each game. We'd mark off the goals we accompliished and post the chart for the kids to see. One daay it hit me: "Well no s$it Sherlock", We accomplished 10 out of 13 goals, played well, and won. Last week we only accomplished 3 and lost. Did that knowledge change anything that we did? If we failed to accomplish our goal of 100 rushing yards was it because last week we made a decision not to stop the run? Did we simply say, "Well guys, this week we should try to play good run defense"? Our kids didn't give up rushing yards because they didn't think it was important. If somebody can explain to me why worrying about stats will help us win, I'm in. Right now I just think that all that ststs do is explain why we lost but doesn't help us win next week. I think why people look at stats, and particularly this post, is to find something that you can focus on specifically that others do not; or spend less time one something that others do. In other words exploit an inefficiency and become more efficient yourself. Billy Beane's Oakland A's (of Moneyball fame) began to select players who walked a lot and had better on base pct., as opposed to batting averages and stolen bases; as it was discovered this stat most correlated with scoring runs. Eventually they had their hitters be more patient and look for walks. The problem being that when you start altering the style of play to fit the stat you fundamentally change context by which the stat was measured. For example, if someone said completion percentage has a 90% correlation to winning then everybody would throw nothing but short passes; and in turn defenses would just sit on short routes. This would alter the paradigm, and probably reduce the correlation between completion pct % and winning. Long point short, the game is always changing, and the stats that led to winning 20 years ago may not be the same that do today.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2015 7:43:07 GMT -6
I am willing to go out on not so much of a limb and say that you could put certain coaches nearly anywhere and they would consistently win or lose games pending the coach. On the field the coach or certain coaches always or always seem to have things fall there way. Certain coach always seem to find a way to lose games. I do not believe for a second that is a coincidence. In our State(Ga) The same coaches always seem to find their way to no less than the semi finals if not the finals. That is not a coincidence.
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Post by dubber on Jan 31, 2015 9:46:16 GMT -6
Field position
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Post by blb on Jan 31, 2015 10:26:20 GMT -6
Unless you are talking Average Starting Position, Field Position in and of itself is not a "stat" and at any rate is determined by other factors - mostly those in the "hidden yardage" of the Kicking Game.
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Post by silkyice on Jan 31, 2015 11:08:40 GMT -6
I am willing to go out on not so much of a limb and say that you could put certain coaches nearly anywhere and they would consistently win or lose games pending the coach. On the field the coach or certain coaches always or always seem to have things fall there way. Certain coach always seem to find a way to lose games. I do not believe for a second that is a coincidence. In our State(Ga) The same coaches always seem to find their way to no less than the semi finals if not the finals. That is not a coincidence. I don't think anyone here on this board will argue that coaching is not important. But I do not think the best coaches have some top secret knowledge about which secret stats win games. The best coaches get the best athletes and/or develop the best athletes. Their teams will be in shape and will hustle and play hard. They get the most out of their athletes through great fundamentals and sound schemes.
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Post by td4tc on Jan 31, 2015 12:02:05 GMT -6
That is a good read.Tony hates the ESPN guys emphasis on Meaningless stats . Being Demeo Disciples we tried to tailor our practices to improve our "meaningful stats" to win the turnover battle and create non offensive touchdowns 1) "less plays more ways" to increase efficiency and reduce turnovers 2) team ball security drills and strip drills every day with rewards attached 3) more attention to specials with intent to score (the double reverse KOR on here is amazing) and punt block fun drills We were generally happy with the results but there are turnovers and there are TURNOVERS and there may not be a stat that reflects this. For example a 45 yd pass that gets picked on third and twenty acts like a punt vs a fumble on the goalline. Same with Penalties. There are penalties and there are PENALTIES. The penalty that negates an explosive play (even though it may not have directly produced the play) or gives the opposing team an added possession were killers for us this year. Add to this it's Tough to have a playbook for first and twenty. Not sure there is a stat that reflects "yards lost" on penalties but that was a huge factor that we would like to coach out of our team.
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Post by rsmith627 on Jan 31, 2015 12:25:46 GMT -6
The only stat that matters: final score on the board when the final whistle sounds.
Not giving up a first down is badass, but how likely is that in today's age of air it out spread nonsense? You're going to give up some big plays on occasion. Even the best defenses in the country do.
We averaged six yards a carry last year and went 1-8. It was our first year together as a staff at a new school. Kids were learning the system, so were the coaches. We expect to win 5 and make the playoffs this year, at worst. Bottom line though, on all those YPC we just didn't finish drives and get in the zone.
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Post by fantom on Jan 31, 2015 12:53:43 GMT -6
Same with Penalties. There are penalties and there are PENALTIES. The penalty that negates an explosive play (even though it may not have directly produced the play) or gives the opposing team an added possession were killers for us this year. Add to this it's Tough to have a playbook for first and twenty. Not sure there is a stat that reflects "yards lost" on penalties but that was a huge factor that we would like to coach out of our team. Defensively, simply counting penalties is useless, maybe counter-productive. If you're going to play good defense you're going to have some penalties. That quick DL is going to jump offsides sometimes. Just coach him up so that it's not on 3rd and 4. An aggressive secondary is going to get some interference calls. Physical defenses are going to get penalized, especially now that any hard hit is liable to draw a targeting call. You have to differentiate between aggressive penalties and dumb/dirty penalties.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 31, 2015 13:42:51 GMT -6
I am willing to go out on not so much of a limb and say that you could put certain coaches nearly anywhere and they would consistently win or lose games pending the coach. On the field the coach or certain coaches always or always seem to have things fall there way. Certain coach always seem to find a way to lose games. I do not believe for a second that is a coincidence. In our State(Ga) The same coaches always seem to find their way to no less than the semi finals if not the finals. That is not a coincidence. Their teams will be in shape and will hustle and play hard. They get the most out of their athletes through great fundamentals and sound schemes. That to me, is how and why some coaches seem to be so "lucky".
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Post by Coach.A on Jan 31, 2015 13:47:24 GMT -6
A roughing the kicker penalty can have a huge impact on the game....it's basically a turnover.
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Post by 44dlcoach on Jan 31, 2015 14:05:48 GMT -6
Same with Penalties. There are penalties and there are PENALTIES. The penalty that negates an explosive play (even though it may not have directly produced the play) or gives the opposing team an added possession were killers for us this year. Add to this it's Tough to have a playbook for first and twenty. Not sure there is a stat that reflects "yards lost" on penalties but that was a huge factor that we would like to coach out of our team. Defensively, simply counting penalties is useless, maybe counter-productive. If you're going to play good defense you're going to have some penalties. That quick DL is going to jump offsides sometimes. Just coach him up so that it's not on 3rd and 4. An aggressive secondary is going to get some interference calls. Physical defenses are going to get penalized, especially now that any hard hit is liable to draw a targeting call. You have to differentiate between aggressive penalties and dumb/dirty penalties. I agree with this 100%. I posted in another thread how I was looking at our defensive penalties to see if there was something we could possibly emphasize to minimize them next year. In looking at our roughing the passer penalties and defensive PI, I really didn't see any plays where I would have told the kids to play it any differently the next time. We were being aggressive, we were playing full speed, and sometimes we had plays that made me think "oh well, sh*t happens", but the majority of those penalties were caused by the kids playing the way we wanted them to play, and the aggressive style that lead to the penalties created far more good results for us.
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Post by fantom on Jan 31, 2015 14:19:35 GMT -6
A roughing the kicker penalty can have a huge impact on the game....it's basically a turnover. To me, roughing the kicker (or holder, if they ever call it) is a "bad" penalty because it's usually the result of poor technique.
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Post by mariner42 on Jan 31, 2015 14:50:41 GMT -6
I am willing to go out on not so much of a limb and say that you could put certain coaches nearly anywhere and they would consistently win or lose games pending the coach. On the field the coach or certain coaches always or always seem to have things fall there way. Certain coach always seem to find a way to lose games. I do not believe for a second that is a coincidence. In our State(Ga) The same coaches always seem to find their way to no less than the semi finals if not the finals. That is not a coincidence. I don't think anyone here on this board will argue that coaching is not important. But I do not think the best coaches have some top secret knowledge about which secret stats win games. The best coaches get the best athletes and/or develop the best athletes. Their teams will be in shape and will hustle and play hard. They get the most out of their athletes through great fundamentals and sound schemes. Agreed. The school I'm at has had a second half running clock the last 3 years of league play, average 400 yards rushing a game, gave up 2 TDs in league play last season. It's not because the HC found some secret/unknown stats, it's because the kids were just plain better all around. Faster, stronger, more physical, don't make mistakes, don't beat themselves. I'm sure the statistical analysis is impeccable and reveals some really great stuff like "We always win when we run for 250+ yards more than the other team", but I don't think that our game at the HS level is as much about hidden metrics as much as it is just doing the right things all the time.
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Post by ryanculloty on Jan 31, 2015 15:20:33 GMT -6
So many great and interesting points from so many of you guys--thank you.
My biggest motivation for this is measuring things that we should empathize...in teaching/coaching
I have found when my players/students find a correlation between what they are doing and finding success their buy-in is outstanding Further, as a teacher I must always be aware of keeping my focus--not over-loading my kids (or myself)--KISS
I understand that the HS level there are many mitigating factors that reduces one stat or another perceived importance--but you guys are really helping me nail this down for my own process--appreciate this assistance!
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Post by ryanculloty on Jan 31, 2015 19:35:21 GMT -6
Great stuff--thanks coach
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Post by 42falcon on Jan 31, 2015 21:15:47 GMT -6
Maybe I am out to lunch but there is no moneyball stats for HS ball that fit...
Coached a team a few years back we had something like 19 takeaways in an 8 game season, with a crappy O that turned the ball over maybe 7-8 times. However we finished 1-6 lost in the playoffs. I had made a post on here at the end of the season and some wise ass said the only stats that mattered were PTS for and against.
I guess I just don't think you can drill down into stats because we are not comparing apples to apples here. If you play a really crappy team and out stat the heck out of them or vice versa the whole theory goes out the window. In MLB it's apples to apples in terms of talent.
I would way rather look at HS football this way: Rank kids: A, B, C, D, E
A -is the best player in your league at his position B- is the great player who is not a game breaker at his position C- is the solid player (average) at his position D- is the kid out of place has weaknesses ie: size, speed, technique, smarts E- is the worst kid at his position in the league
Now look at your team VS the teams you play. How many A's do you have, the more you have the better your % of winning and the more errors you can make. B's can make some errors and recover. C's can't make mistakes if they do you consistently will lose. The more D's you have the greater your chance of losing. E's will get you beat every time.
You don't develop an A, you just try not to F' them up, you develop C's into B's and D's into C's and try to replace the E's.
There is another set of unrankable / unstatable qualities: 1) Effort 2) Physicality These are things that in HS ball make a world of difference. In the NFL everyone is playing their asses off, or they get cut. In HS ball you can get a kid who is a C and think he is an A talent wise and just hustles everywhere, he will make plays, you can win with this kid, but again he can't make mistakes.
Just my 2 cents.
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Post by Chris Clement on Jan 31, 2015 21:29:38 GMT -6
I would proffer a maxim that HS football is won by the 12-worst defensive player on each team. It's an oversimplified statement, but it has a certain validity.
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Post by coachd5085 on Jan 31, 2015 21:49:00 GMT -6
Great stuff--thanks coach Really? Not to demean coachweav88 's link, but I wouldn't say anything mentioned in that link would be "great". I read it and I thought--hmm..so Tony Demeo suggests coaches be good coaches. I mean, some of the ideas presented such as : -"Be fundamentally sound, good tacklers and play fast" -"Gang Tackle and strip the ball on every tackle once the tackle is secure. Touch the ball on defense on every play." are fairly nice football concepts, but I wouldn't say they are geared to any type of metric or statistical analysis. It is just good football. I hope this doesn't come off like I am knocking Coach Demeo, because he is obviously a fine football coach. I just think we as coaches may do ourselves a disservice chasing after "moneyball" solutions, particularly ones tied to the metrics and stats Coach Demeo espouses (Score 25 a game against the best, and hold best opponents to 16) That said, I DO think that the most underlying concept of "moneyball" --THINK ABOUT YOUR SITUATION, AND COME UP WITH A PLAN-- can be useful. I believe this was discussed in another thread about always going for it, always onside kicking etc.
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mhs99
Junior Member
Posts: 250
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Post by mhs99 on Jan 31, 2015 21:52:52 GMT -6
Great point by dubber, look at starting field position and if you are consistently winning that battle big you will win a lot of games. Quick field position correlations: If you have great starting field position is usually because: 1. Your defense causes a lots of 3 and outs 2. You are limiting explosive plays. 3, You have done a great job in the punt/kick return game via scheme and execution. 4. You have stud skill guys who are great in space and the other team is too stupid and kicks to them. If you are pinning teams it usually is a direct reflection on: 1. You consistently get first downs and are winning the field position game. 2. You have a great punter and kicker 3. You coverage teams are excellent. We have lost 2 league title games that were a direct reflection on being pinned down on long fields against one team that had a great punter and one team that had great coverage teams and a great kicker. We out gained both teams by 100 yards and lost 14-6 and 26-6.
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Post by 33coach on Jan 31, 2015 23:36:55 GMT -6
I have done team goals and stickers before---but getting really into it Which Stats can you really grade consistently and say: "This was the difference in the game." Stats I would want to track: 1. Turn-overs 2. I like to hear 1. your stat 2. reason for it I think that we can lose ourselves in the data--and not using the data is foolish What are your thoughts? Thank you Being a computer science grad ( software engineer), and a decent statistician...ive looked into finding the sabermetrics of football...and ive found that there are just too many variables to break down the game this way. But what that i think to be an interestigly effective KPI (key performance indicator is first down percentage per drive. If our first down percentage per drive is high, it means we are either scoring quickly (2 first downs in a 3 play drive), or we are having long sustained drives (4 first downs, 13 play drive). It can also point to quick turnovers, which is another indicator.
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